Monday, December 1, 2008

National Bureau of Economic Research declares recession began in December 2007

The U.S. economy entered a recession a year ago this month, the panel that dates American business expansions said today.

The official declaration was made by the cycle-dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, nonprofit group of economists based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The last time the U.S. was in a recession was from March through November 2001, according to NBER.

“The committee determined that the decline in economic activity in 2008 met the standard for a recession,” the group said in a statement on its Web site. The 1.2 million drop in payroll employment so far this year was the biggest factor in determining that start of the contraction, the group said.

The 73-month economic expansion, lasting from November 2001 to December 2007, was well short of the previous cycle that lasted a record 10 years. At 12 months, the current contraction is already longer than the last slump that covered the eight months from March to November 2001.

Although a recession is conventionally defined as two quarters of successive contraction in gross domestic product, the private committee doesn’t require supporting GDP data to make a recession call. Its members focus on month-to-month changes in the economy.

The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5 percent pace in the third quarter after expanding 2.8 percent in the previous three months. Economists at Goldman Sachs group Inc. and Morgan Stanley in New York are among those projecting the economy will contract at a 5 percent pace this quarter.
Members of the committee are Stanford University professor Robert Hall; Martin Feldstein of Harvard University; Jeffrey Frankel, also of Harvard University; Northwestern University economics professor Robert Gordon; NBER president James Poterba; David Romer of the University of California at Berkeley; and Conference Board economist Victor Zarnowitz.

3 comments:

Ray said...

I see high paying jobs posted on popular job sites -

www.linkedin.com (professional networking)
www.monster.com (keyword job search)
www.realmatch.com (matches jobs based on skills)

I think the media is trying to scare the US workforce.

Jason said...

According to Keynes, the root cause of an economic downturns is an insufficient aggregate demand. When the total demand for goods and services declines, businesses throughout the economy see their sales fall off. Lower sales induce firms to cut back production and to lay off workers. Rising unemployment and declining profits further depress demand, leading to a feedback loop with a very unhappy ending.

http://nomedals.blogspot.com

Mberenis said...

In a recession, it isn't always bad. Most people don't realize how much money there is out there. During economic times like this, there is more money to be had than ever. Because of the bailouts and economy, lenders are bending over backwards to bail you out too. Believe it or not, there is people getting tons of cheap money nowdays to start businesses, buy homes, pay off debt, and more. Recession Bailouts for YOU